Mutiny on the Monorail!
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troubled monorail yesterday, refusing street-use permits and calling for a
fifth public vote on the project in November.
The ballot measure would ask voters whether they want to kill plans, three
years in the making, for a 14-mile line to connect Ballard,
"This is perhaps the most disappointing day for me since I became mayor
nearly four years ago," Nickels said at a news conference. "... Put simply, the monorail does
not have enough money to pay for the project."
The mayor's turnabout marks the biggest setback yet for a project that began
as a grass-roots movement for a functional transit system that rises above
traffic. By this summer, though, the public rebelled against a
finance plan that would have required at least 50 years of taxes totaling
$11.4 billion to pay for a $2.1 billion line.
The mayor last month set Thursday as the deadline for the Seattle Monorail
Project (SMP) to come up with its own ballot measure to either raise taxes
or shorten the line. Instead, SMP sought
a three-month reprieve so its new director, former
Boston-area transit chief John Haley, could look for cost savings.
Nickels' decision yesterday gives SMP one last chance to write its own ballot
measure by Wednesday. "If they
are unwilling to do that, then the city will do it for them," he said.
Nickels asked the City Council to hold an emergency session Thursday to
forward a ballot measure to King County Elections by Friday, the last day
to reach the Nov. 8 ballot. So far, five council members have
agreed.
If the monorail agency were to disband, the tax could continue for up to
two more years to help pay off $110 million in debt, money that has been
spent on administration, land for stations and design concepts.
The financial crisis began in 2003 when the car-tab tax revenues fell a
third short of original projections. Shortfalls have
continued. To close the gap, monorail leaders counted on car values
rising twice as fast as inflation. A city analysis calls that
unlikely. "You can't solve a real
revenue problem with rosy projections," Nickels said.
At an SMP news conference yesterday, Chairwoman Kristina Hill criticized
Nickels, saying voters have already approved the project four times. "I think leadership means solving
problems, and the problem is people have to be able to move in and out of
downtown
In November, when voters sustained the project by handily defeating anti-monorail
Initiative 83 last fall, SMP was withholding news of a $300 million cost
increase, and had not yet issued its multigenerational finance plan.
SMP has called a special meeting for today, most of it behind closed
doors. Haley, who joined SMP three weeks
ago to replace Executive Director Joel Horn, expressed frustration that a
line in a pro-transit city, with most of the right of way already
purchased, would face political turmoil now.
Gov. Christine Gregoire, state Auditor Brian Sonntag and state Treasurer
Mike Murphy all praised the mayor's decision.
"I personally do not believe the monorail is the right approach because
it will potentially divert attention and resources and not solve our
critical transportation safety issues," Gregoire said in a statement.
"Today, the mayor placed this issue exactly where it be
A pro-monorail base persists, including a new group of young adults called
2045
Monorail opponent Henry Aronson predicted the monorail board will put a
shortened route on the ballot, cutting off the last mile in Ballard and in
Pat Flaherty, president of lead construction partner Fluor Enterprises,
said he was struggling to understand the mayor's
thinking. Flaherty noted that a world-class panel -- John Eastman
of Vancouver SkyTrain, Jen Liew of Monorail Malaysia and Don Irwin of Tri-Met
in Portland -- found the cost reasonable, given the complexity of
elevated transit here.
"If the city of
project in
Monorail activist Peter Sherwin said the line remains a bargain compared
with Sound Transit light-rail tunneling at $450 million a mile, and the
city has no workable plan for bus rapid transit or streetcar alternatives.
"It's just hypocritical of him to demand a perfect plan, everything, in
rocket time for this line," Sherwin said, adding that Nickels never called
for revote when Sound Transit's costs doubled in 2001. Nickels had been a
Several observers have warned that monorail controversies would turn the
public against big government projects, adding support for a statewide
initiative to repeal gas taxes. That would jeopardize $2 billion
that state lawmakers have earmarked for viaduct work. Nickels' decision hinged on advice from City
Finance Director Dwight Dively, who judged the monorail unaffordable.
SMP needs 6.1 percent annual growth in car-tab tax collections to pay off
the line in 42 years, and its own studies showed only a 50-50 chance of
hitting or exceeding that rate. Dively thinks 5 percent is more
likely. "At 5 percent, you
can't even come close to financing it in 40 years. It would take you, perhaps, forever to
pay off the debt."
If the city's biggest risk is that people have to pay the tax
In another setback, the city Planning Commission issued a report this week
saying the monorail passenger capacity is much smaller than other rail-transit
lines, and current plans lack enough trains to serve the expected riders.
City Council members Richard Conlin,
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